Conspiracy Theories Aren’t Only for the Powerless
Why Read This
What Makes This Article Worth Your Time
Summary
What This Article Is About
Psychologist Onurcan Yilmaz challenges a foundational assumption in conspiracy theory research: that such beliefs belong primarily to the powerless. After the devastating February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye, which killed over 50,000 people, a HAARP conspiracy theory spread rapidly online, claiming that foreign powers had triggered the disaster using a secret weapon. Standard psychology would predict this theory to spread among opposition supporters—those who felt politically marginalised. Instead, analysis of nearly 39,000 tweets found it was government supporters, followers of President Erdoğan, who produced and shared the content far more. A preregistered survey of 3,568 people confirmed the finding: higher belief in the HAARP theory predicted a 35% greater probability of voting for the incumbent government, a relationship that held even after controlling for age, education, income, and personal loss in the disaster.
The article draws on a distinction between upward conspiracy theories (targeting powerful elites) and downward conspiracy theories (targeting vulnerable groups like immigrants), arguing that the HAARP theory was functionally downward despite targeting a foreign power: it deflected blame from the government’s failure to enforce building codes onto an external enemy. Yilmaz situates this within a broader pattern—comparable to how some of Donald Trump’s COVID-19 claims redirected scrutiny toward China—and notes that national pride and conspiracy belief co-rise across 56 countries in moments of crisis. The article closes with a reframing of the essential question: rather than asking who believes a conspiracy theory, we should ask who it benefits.
Key Points
Main Takeaways
The Standard Model Is Incomplete
Decades of research framed conspiracy beliefs as the refuge of the politically powerless. The Türkiye earthquake data shows this model cannot account for theories that spread among those already in power.
The HAARP Theory Shielded the Government
By attributing the earthquake to a foreign weapon, the theory transformed a domestic governance failure—lax building code enforcement—into an external attack, protecting the ruling party from accountability.
A 35% Voting Boost, Regardless of Education
A nationally representative survey found that higher HAARP belief predicted a 35% greater probability of voting for the government, an effect that remained significant after controlling for education, age, income, and personal loss.
Upward in Form, Downward in Function
The HAARP theory nominally targets powerful foreign states, but functionally it operates like a downward theory by redirecting public anger away from the incumbent government and toward a convenient external enemy.
A Global Pattern, Not a Turkish Anomaly
The Türkiye case mirrors broader dynamics: national pride and conspiracy belief co-rise during crises across 56 countries, and similar blame-deflecting narratives followed COVID-19 in the United States.
Ask Who Benefits, Not Who Believes
The article’s key reframing: instead of asking who is gullible enough to believe a far-fetched theory, the more revealing question is who benefits from its spread—and that answer is often those already in power.
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Article Analysis
Breaking Down the Elements
Main Idea
Conspiracy Theories Can Serve Power, Not Just Protest It
Yilmaz’s central argument is that the psychological literature’s “losers” model of conspiracy belief is empirically incomplete. Some conspiracy theories—particularly those that arise after disasters for which a government is arguably responsible—function as instruments of incumbent power by directing public blame externally. The implication is significant: when evaluating a conspiracy theory, we must analyse its political function, not just its psychological origin.
Purpose
To Report New Research and Reframe a Key Question
Yilmaz writes to share findings from his own peer-reviewed study in Political Psychology and to use them to challenge an entrenched assumption in the field. The article simultaneously functions as research communication—explaining methodology, data, and caveats—and as a broader argumentative intervention, proposing that the most useful analytical lens for conspiracy theories is political function rather than psychological type.
Structure
Vivid Case Study → Standard Theory → Anomaly → Research → Reframing
The article opens with a gripping real-world case (the HAARP theory), then states the established psychological model that it should disprove. The anomaly—government supporters, not opponents, spreading the theory—creates the central puzzle. The author then presents two studies to explain the anomaly, broadens to global parallels, issues careful caveats, and closes with a reframed question. This problem–solution–implication structure is characteristic of rigorous science communication.
Tone
Precise, Measured & Analytically Sharp
Yilmaz writes with the disciplined restraint of an empirical researcher who knows how much his data can and cannot prove. He explicitly flags that the data are correlational, that both sides in Türkiye deploy conspiracy theories, and that no deliberate propaganda operation has been proven. This epistemic care coexists with a clearly argued thesis, giving the article a tone that is simultaneously cautious and confident—the hallmark of well-executed popular science writing.
Key Terms
Vocabulary from the Article
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Tough Words
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Comfort or psychological relief offered to someone who has experienced disappointment, loss, or feelings of helplessness; something that provides solace.
“Conspiracy theories, the argument goes, are the consolation of the powerless.”
The spreading or distribution of information, ideas, or beliefs widely among a large number of people or across different places.
“National narcissism predicts the belief in and the dissemination of conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
An automatic or instinctive reaction to a situation, done without conscious thought or deliberate reasoning; a habitual or default response.
“When a disaster is quickly followed by a story about a foreign enemy, the reflex is to ask who could believe something so far-fetched.”
Declared one’s approval of or agreement with a claim, policy, or idea; publicly or actively supported a particular position or belief.
“The more strongly a person endorsed that explanation, the more likely they were to plan to vote for the government.”
Unlikely and unconvincing; improbable or implausible because the explanation requires stretching credibility well beyond what evidence supports.
“The reflex is to ask who could believe something so far-fetched.”
Caused something—such as criticism, blame, or attention—to be redirected away from its original or deserved target toward something else.
“Some of Donald Trump’s claims about the origin of the virus pointed the blame at China and away from the response at home.”
Reading Comprehension
Test Your Understanding
5 questions covering different RC question types
1According to the article, the 35% higher voting probability associated with HAARP belief disappeared once the researchers controlled for education level in their statistical model.
2Why does the author describe the HAARP theory as functioning like a “downward” conspiracy theory, even though it nominally blames foreign powers stronger than Türkiye?
3Which sentence best captures the article’s central reframing of how we should think about conspiracy theories after a disaster?
4Evaluate the following statements about the research design and findings described in the article.
The second study was preregistered, meaning the researchers fixed their hypotheses and analytical methods before collecting any data.
The study’s correlational data proves that the Turkish government deliberately planned the HAARP conspiracy theory as a propaganda strategy ahead of the 2023 election.
The first study analysed tweets and found that accounts following President Erdoğan produced and shared significantly more HAARP conspiracy content than those following his main opponent.
Select True or False for all three statements, then click “Check Answers”
5What can most reasonably be inferred about why Yilmaz notes that “the opposition in Türkiye has its own” conspiracy theories?
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
HAARP (High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program) is a real atmospheric research facility in Alaska. In the conspiracy theory that spread after the February 2023 Türkiye earthquakes, it was reframed as a weapon capable of triggering earthquakes remotely. The theory claimed foreign powers had deployed it—in some versions, via ships in the Bosphorus—to cause the disaster deliberately. Its basis in a real but little-known institution made it more credible to some audiences than a purely invented weapon would have been.
Upward conspiracy theories target those with real power—intelligence agencies, global elites, foreign governments—and typically challenge authority. Downward conspiracy theories target groups with little power, such as immigrants or minorities, and tend to benefit those already in charge by directing public anger toward a scapegoat. The HAARP theory is interesting precisely because it appears upward (blaming powerful foreign states) but functions in a downward way, shielding the domestic government from accountability for its own failures.
Correlational data shows that two things are statistically associated—in this case, that higher HAARP belief goes together with higher likelihood of voting for the government—but it cannot prove that one caused the other, or that anyone deliberately orchestrated the theory as propaganda. It is possible that both conspiracy belief and government support are independently driven by a third factor, such as national identity. This caution matters because it prevents the research from overreaching into claims the data cannot support.
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This article is rated Intermediate. It is clearly written and avoids heavy jargon, but it requires readers to follow a research argument across multiple studies, understand methodological terms like “preregistered” and “correlational,” and hold in mind the distinction between upward and downward conspiracy theories while tracking how the HAARP case blurs that boundary. The article also demands critical reading: the caveats are essential to the argument, not peripheral to it.
Onurcan Yilmaz is a psychologist and the lead author of the research discussed in this article. The findings are drawn from a peer-reviewed study published in 2025 in Political Psychology (Alper, Varol, & Yilmaz, 2025), one of the leading journals in political psychology. The study used two complementary data sources—a large-scale Twitter analysis and a nationally representative preregistered survey—giving the findings both breadth and methodological rigour. This Psychology Today piece is Yilmaz’s accessible public summary of that work.
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